September Drought Forecast Map

SEPTEMBER 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period July to September 2020 from the CPT indicates that rainfall amounts are likely to be below-normal to near-normal, with above-normal temperatures.

This rainfall outlook is particularly significant because all parishes with the exception of Trelawny are experiencing Meteorological Drought conditions. The months of May and June are traditionally characterized by an increase in rainfall which would typically reduce water deficits resulting from reduced rainfall during the dry season. From observations, all parishes experienced increasingly drier conditions throughout these months. Current and projected environmental conditions continue to point toward a warmer and dryer Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Therefore, Jamaicans should brace for an increase in heat stress impacts, more bush fires as well as reduced water inflows into water storage facilities and reservoirs for the upcoming three-months.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the computer models in the upcoming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more