October Drought Forecast Map

OCTOBER 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period of August to October 2020 from the CPT indicates that rainfall amounts are likely to be above-normal, with warmer than normal temperatures.

Projections for the upcoming three months are that the island could experience a noticeable increase in rainfall when compared to recent months. This forecast is consistent with Jamaica’s annual rainfall cycle where September usually marks the beginning of the primary wet season, with the peak occurring in October.

With Meteorological Drought conditions currently affecting most parishes across the island, the expected rainfall should bring some relief from these conditions, as well as provide recharging for water storage facilities. The occurrence of bush fires should decrease as the number of days with rainfall increases during this season. Warmer than normal temperatures could result in heat stress impacts especially on days with little to no rainfall.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the computer models in the upcoming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more