October Drought Forecast Map

OCTOBER 2018 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

During the period of August to October the forecasts are indicating that most areas are likely to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures with below-normal rainfall.

Current projections are indicating a decline in rainfall over all stations, over the upcoming three months. There is a possibility that this could lead to an extended dry period, especially over sections of central and eastern parishes.

Although, the rainfall predictions for the upcoming three months are likely to be below average, pockets of dryness are likely to linger across sections of the following parishes, St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and St Elizabeth. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models in the upcoming months so as to advise our stakeholders, especially farmers accordingly.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more