October Drought Forecast Map

OCTOBER 2019 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Although the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean will remain warmer than normal (Linked to increased rainfall), other environmental conditions such as the Saharan Dry Air and warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to influence rainfall patterns across Jamaica. Therefore, as we approach the upcoming rainfall period of August to October, there is a moderate chance that the island could experience a below-normal to near-normal season. Temperatures, on the other hand, are likely to remain warmer than normal throughout the period, based on the latest findings from the seasonal climate forecast model.

Jamaicans should brace for more heat stress and related impacts, especially during the month of August. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models in the upcoming months so as to advise our stakeholders, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more