November Drought Forecast Map

NOVEMBER 2019 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

As we approach the peak of the wet season in Jamaica, September to November, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below normal to near normal based on the latest forecast from our computer model. Also, ocean temperatures are likely to remain near average over the next three months. This will result in little or no ocean signals and, therefore, lower forecast confidence. The forecast also indicates that temperatures are most likely to remain warmer than normal for the upcoming three-month period, September to November, based on the latest findings from the seasonal climate forecast model.

Although the forecast indicates below-normal to near-normal rainfall amounts, Jamaicans should brace themselves as the chance of flash flood events during the wet season, is likely. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models in the upcoming months so as to advise our stakeholders, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more