March Drought Forecast Map

MARCH 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period of January to March indicates that rainfall is likely to be near-normal to below-normal. Since the beginning of the current dry season (December 2019), the rainfall outlook for the island has indicated that sections of the island could experience a deficit in rainfall. Parishes such as Portland and St. Mary have already begun to show a notable degree of drying. Although forecast confidence is near moderate, due to weak ocean signals, the likelihood of having potential water deficit up to the end the period remains high. Above-normal but comfortable temperatures are likely.

To experience below normal rainfall during dry seasons is far from ideal. This, therefore, calls for immediate action to minimize the negative effects of water shortages. Farmers and householders among others could consider rainwater harvesting (along with its proper storage) during occasional wet days and of course employ water conservation methods otherwise.

The Meteorological Service will continue to provide updates for the upcoming months.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  • Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  • Download and install Google Earth on your PC* 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)  0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)  0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more