July Drought Forecast Map

JULY 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period May to July 2020 indicates that rainfall amounts are likely to be below-normal to near-normal, with above-normal temperatures. During this period Jamaica will transition from the early wet season in May to midsummer dry period in July. With this being the second consecutive Seasonal Forecast to indicate a similar rainfall outlook and coupled with supporting observations, further water deficits are likely across sections of the island.

This outlook is of significance, particularly for sections of Hanover, St. Catherine, Kingston and St. Andrew which have experienced Meteorological Drought conditions in recent months. With temperatures expected to remain above-normal as summer approaches, the likelihood of heat stress-related impacts also increase. All the necessary precautions should, therefore, be taken.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the computer models in the upcoming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more