January Drought Forecast Map

JANUARY 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

For the period November to January, rainfall amounts are likely to be above-normal based on the latest forecast from our computer model. Notwithstanding, the overall rainfall amounts should decrease compared with amounts seen in September and October since we are heading out of our primary wet season. From our data analysis of ocean signals, a notable increase in rainfall and flash flood events are likely for northeastern parishes.

Findings from the seasonal climate forecast model indicate that temperatures are likely to remain above average for the upcoming three-month period. Therefore, temperatures during the period should remain generally comfortable due to the increase in the number of cold fronts at this time of the year.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models and advise our stakeholders accordingly.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  • Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  • Download and install Google Earth on your PC* 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)  0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)  0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more