December Drought Forecast Map

DECEMBER 2019 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

For the period of October to December, rainfall amounts are likely to be near-normal to above-normal based on the latest forecast from our computer model. Also, ocean temperatures are likely to remain near average over the next three months. This will result in little or no ocean signals and, therefore, lower forecast confidence. The forecast continues to indicate that temperatures are more likely to remain warmer than normal for the upcoming three-month period, October to December, based on the latest findings from the seasonal climate forecast model.

Although the forecast indicates near-normal to above-normal rainfall amounts, Jamaicans should continue to utilize various water conservation methods to cushion the effects from dry spells experienced in recent months. Citizens are also, advised to remain alert since the chance of flash flood events during the wet season, is likely. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models in the upcoming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly, especially our farmers.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more