Drought Forecast Map

NOVEMBER 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period of September to November 2020 from the CPT indicates that rainfall amounts are likely to be above-normal, with warmer than normal temperatures.

The projections for the upcoming three months are that the island could experience a noticeable increase in rainfall when compared to recent months. This forecast is consistent with Jamaica’s annual rainfall cycle where September usually marks the beginning of the primary wet season, with the peak occurring in October. This comes as favourable news in light of recent months of drought conditions across the island. On the other hand, this also means that the potential for flash flooding and landslides will also increase. Temperatures are expected to remain above-normal, notwithstanding this the likelihood of heat stress impacts should decrease towards the end of September.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the computer models in the coming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly.

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more