Drought Forecast Map

JUNE 2020 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

The forecast for the upcoming three-month period April to June 2020 indicates that rainfall amounts are likely to be below-normal to near-normal. From a climatological analysis, this season is traditionally characterized by an increase in rainfall associated with the early wet season. Water utility companies and farmers among others, typically look forward to this increase in rainfall to facilitate optimum operations and boost yields.

This rainfall outlook, therefore, comes as unfavourable news, especially for sections of Portland, St Mary, St Catherine, Kingston and St. Andrew which have been experiencing Meteorological Drought in recent months. During this same season in 2019, some sections of Jamaica experienced drought, therefore having a contingency plan to mitigate against another uncharacteristically dry period could prove quite beneficial. Temperatures are once again likely to be above-normal. As a result, more bush fires along with the onset of heat stress-related impacts are likely.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the computer models in the upcoming months and advise our stakeholders accordingly, especially our farmers.

 

To view our 3D drought maps follow the steps listed below:

  1. Download all the files from our Dropbox link listed below.
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC*

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Drying (40%tile) 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile) 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more