Drought Forecast Map

FEBRUARY 2018 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

For the period of December 2017 to February 2018, the forecast from our computer models indicate, near-normal (average) rainfall over most areas of the island. Although forecast confidence remains low, the latest forecast from the computer models are indicating that western parishes could receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period.

Although there are no immediate concerns for drought at this time. The current forecast does indicate that some stations over western parishes could see near normal to below normal levels in rainfall. As we enter into the normally cooler months of December, January and February, the forecast from the computer models are indicating that temperature over the period are likely to remain above than normal.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the findings from the models in the upcoming months, so as to advise our stakeholders, especially farmers, accordingly.

To view our 3D drought maps use the following browsers with 3D plugin:

  1. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox
  2. Download and install Google Earth on your PC* 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)  0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)  0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness (70%tile) 0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more